{"id":3973,"date":"2017-12-18T20:02:17","date_gmt":"2017-12-18T11:02:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/suxism.com\/?p=3973"},"modified":"2017-12-18T20:02:17","modified_gmt":"2017-12-18T11:02:17","slug":"%ed%94%bc%ed%83%80%ea%b3%a0%eb%a6%ac%ec%95%88-%ec%8a%b9%eb%a5%a0pythagorean-expectation%ec%9d%80-%ec%99%9c-%ec%a0%95%ed%99%95%ed%95%a0%ea%b9%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/?p=3973","title":{"rendered":"\ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960(pythagorean expectation)\uc740 \uc65c \uc815\ud655\ud560\uae4c?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t\t\t\t\n

\ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \ube4c \uc81c\uc784\uc2a4(Bill James)\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uace0\uc548\ub41c \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c, \ub4dd\uc810\uacfc \uc2e4\uc810\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud300\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4. \uc218\uc2dd\uc758 \ud615\ud0dc\uac00 \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub77c\uc2a4 \uacf5\uc2dd\uacfc \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uc5ec \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960\uc774\ub77c \ubd88\ub9b0\ub2e4. \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub77c\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960 \uacc4\uc0b0\ubc95\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc2b9\ub960 = \ub4dd\uc810^2 \/ (\ub4dd\uc810^2+\uc2e4\uc810^2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc218\uc2dd\uc758 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud568\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ub180\ub77c\uc6b4 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc774 \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960\ubc95\uc740 \ub3c4\ub300\uccb4 \uc65c \uc774\ub807\uac8c \uc798 \ub4e4\uc5b4\ub9de\uc744\uae4c?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc774\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ud558\uc5ec \uc218\ud559\uc790\uc778 \uc2a4\ud2f0\ube10 \ubc00\ub7ec(Steven J. Miller)\uac00 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uc218\ud559\uc801 \ud0c0\ub2f9\uc131\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \ub17c\ubb38\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\uc600\ub2e4.<\/a> \uc774 \ub17c\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uadf8\ub294 \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc5b8 \uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc65c \uc798 \ub4e4\uc5b4\ub9de\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \uc0c1\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uc77c \ud300\uc758 \ub4dd\uc810\uacfc \uc2e4\uc810\uc774 \uac01\uac01 \ubca0\uc774\ubd88 \ubd84\ud3ec\ub97c \ub530\ub974\uace0, \uc11c\ub85c \ub3c5\ub9bd\ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \uac00\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uba74, \ud300\uc758 \uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc54c\uace0\uc788\ub294 \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960\ubc95\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uc18c\uac1c\ud55c\uc801\uc788\ub294 \ubca0\uc774\ubd88 \ubd84\ud3ec\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218 \ubd84\ud3ec\uc758 \uc77c\ubc18\ud654\ub41c \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c,<\/a> \uc2e4\uc81c \uc57c\uad6c \uacbd\uae30\ub2f9 \ub4dd\uc810 \ubd84\ud3ec\uc640 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uc5ec \uc774\ub97c \uc27d\uac8c \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc790\uc8fc \uc4f0\uc778\ub2e4. \uc218\uc2dd\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n

f(x; \u03b1, \u03b3) = (\u03b3\/\u03b1) \u00d7 (x\/\u03b1)^(\u03b3\u22121) \u00d7 e^(\u2212(x\/\u03b1)^\u03b3) (x \u2265 0)<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc5ec\uae30\uc11c \uc54c\ud30c(

\u03b1<\/div>)\ub294 \ubd84\ud3ec\uc758 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c, \uac10\ub9c8(
\u03b3<\/div>)\ub294 \ubd84\ud3ec\uc758 \ud615\ud0dc\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\ub77c\ubbf8\ud130\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc774\uc81c \uc704\uc758 \uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c\ubd80\ud130, \ud3c9\uade0 \ub4dd\uc810(RS)\uacfc \ud3c9\uade0 \uc2e4\uc810(RA)\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc704 \ud655\ub960\ubd84\ud3ec\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uac12\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\uba74 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n

RS = \u222b\u2080^\u221e x \u00b7 f(x; \u03b1_RS, \u03b3) dx
RA = \u222b\u2080^\u221e x \u00b7 f(x; \u03b1_RA, \u03b3) dx<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc774\uc81c \uc2b9\ub960\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud574\ubcf4\uc790. \uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \ub4dd\uc810(RS)\uc774 \uc2e4\uc810(RA)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud074 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\ubbc0\ub85c, \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uc801\ubd84\ud558\uc5ec \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n

Prob(X > Y) = \u222b\u2080^\u221e \u222b\u2080^x f(x; \u03b1_RS, \u03b3) \u00b7 f(y; \u03b1_RA, \u03b3) dy dx<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc774 \uc2dd\uc744 \uc798 \uc815\ub9ac\ud558\uba74 \uc544\ub798\uc640 \uac19\uc774 \uac04\ub2e8\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n

Prob(X > Y) = RS^\u03b3 \/ (RS^\u03b3 + RA^\u03b3)<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uacb0\uad6d \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc798 \uc54c\uace0\uc788\ub294 \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960 \uc218\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ub9ac\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub54c \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \ucd5c\ucd08 \ubca0\uc774\ubd88 \ubd84\ud3ec\uc758 \uac10\ub9c8\uac12\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uacb0\uc815\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub9e4\ub144 \uac70\uc758 1.7\uc5d0\uc11c 2.0 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \ubd84\ud3ec\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc54c\uace0\uc788\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218 2\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \uc798 \ub4e4\uc5b4\ub9de\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc0c8\uc0bc \ube4c \uc81c\uc784\uc2a4\uc758 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub09c \uc9c1\uad00\ub825\uc774 \ub180\ub78d\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \ube4c \uc81c\uc784\uc2a4(Bill James)\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uace0\uc548\ub41c \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c, \ub4dd\uc810\uacfc \uc2e4\uc810\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud300\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4. \uc218\uc2dd\uc758 \ud615\ud0dc\uac00 \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub77c\uc2a4 \uacf5\uc2dd\uacfc \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uc5ec \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960\uc774\ub77c \ubd88\ub9b0\ub2e4. \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub77c\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960 \uacc4\uc0b0\ubc95\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4. \uc2b9\ub960 = \ub4dd\uc810^2 \/ (\ub4dd\uc810^2+\uc2e4\uc810^2) \uc218\uc2dd\uc758 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud568\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ub180\ub77c\uc6b4 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc774 \ud53c\ud0c0\uace0\ub9ac\uc548 \uc2b9\ub960\ubc95\uc740 \ub3c4\ub300\uccb4 \uc65c \uc774\ub807\uac8c \uc798 \ub4e4\uc5b4\ub9de\uc744\uae4c? \uc774\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ud558\uc5ec \uc218\ud559\uc790\uc778 \uc2a4\ud2f0\ube10 \ubc00\ub7ec(Steven J. Miller)\uac00 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 … \ub354 \uc77d\uae30<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[775,776,576,122,777,194,231,313,476],"class_list":["post-3973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research","tag-pythagorean-expectation","tag-pythagorean-winning","tag-weibull-distribution","tag-122","tag-777","tag-194","tag-231","tag-313","tag-476"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3973"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3973\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}