{"id":7161,"date":"2024-07-04T17:45:46","date_gmt":"2024-07-04T08:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/suxism.com\/?p=7161"},"modified":"2024-07-04T17:45:46","modified_gmt":"2024-07-04T08:45:46","slug":"%ed%83%80%ec%88%9c%ec%9d%b4-%eb%8f%8c%eb%a9%b4-%ec%a0%95%eb%a7%90-%ed%88%ac%ec%88%98%ec%97%90%ea%b2%8c-%eb%b6%88%eb%a6%ac%ed%95%a0%ea%b9%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/?p=7161","title":{"rendered":"\ud0c0\uc21c\uc774 \ub3cc\uba74 \uc815\ub9d0 \ud22c\uc218\uc5d0\uac8c \ubd88\ub9ac\ud560\uae4c?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t\t\t\t\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc624\ub7ab\ub3d9\uc548 \uc57c\uad6c\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud22c\uc218\uac00 \uac19\uc740 \ud0c0\uc790\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubc88 \uc0c1\ub300\ud560\uc218\ub85d \uc131\uc801\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uc5b4\uc654\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \u201c\ud0c0\uc21c\uc774 \ub3cc\uba74 \uc0dd\uae30\ub294 \ud398\ub110\ud2f0(Time Through the Order Penalty, TTOP)\u201d\ub77c\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. TTOP\ub294 \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubc88 \uc0c1\ub300\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \uc131\uc801\uc774 \uc810\uc810 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ud0c0\uc21c\uc774 \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8\ub85c \ub3cc \ub54c \uc0c1\ub300 \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \ud22c\uad6c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud574 \ub354 \uc88b\uc740 \uc131\uc801\uc744 \ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\uc124\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \uc774\uac83\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc77c\uae4c?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud1b0 \ud0f1\uace0(Tom Tango)\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tango, Lichtman, Dolphin(2007)\uc758 &#8220;The Book&#8221;\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 TTOP \ud604\uc0c1\uc744 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud22c\uc218\uac00 \ud0c0\uc790\ub97c \ucc98\uc74c, \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8, \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8\ub85c \uc0c1\ub300\ud560 \ub54c \uac01\uac01\uc758 wOBA(\uac00\uc911 \ucd9c\ub8e8\uc728)\ub97c \ube44\uad50\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc, \ud0c0\uc21c\uc774 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub420\uc218\ub85d \ud22c\uc218\uac00 \ud5c8\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 wOBA\uac00 8~10 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc815\ub3c4 \ub098\ube60\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 \uacb0\ub860\uc744 \ub3c4\ucd9c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubc88 \uc0c1\ub300\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \uc131\uc801\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \uac00\uc124\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \uacbd\uae30 \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911 \ud22c\uc218 \uc131\uc801\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ubcc0\ud654(\uc608: \ud22c\uc218 \ud53c\ub85c)\uc640 \uc21c\ubc88 \uac04 \ubd88\uc5f0\uc18d\uc131(\uc608: \ud0c0\uc790\uc758 \ud559\uc2b5 \ud6a8\uacfc)\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubd84\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \ud55c\uacc4\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc989, \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \ud53c\ub85c\uc5d0 \uc758\ud55c \ud6a8\uacfc\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ub77c\uc774\uc5b8 \ube0c\ub9b4(Ryan Brill)\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc5f0\uad6c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2210.06724\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\ub300\ud559\uc6d0\uc0dd \ub77c\uc774\uc5b8 \ube0c\ub9b4(Ryan Brill)\uc740 2023\ub144\uc5d0 \u201cA Bayesian Analysis of the Time Through the Order Penalty in Baseball\u201d\ub77c\ub294 \ub17c\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774 \uac00\uc124\uc744 \uac80\uc99d\ud588\ub2e4. (opens in a new tab)\">\ub300\ud559\uc6d0\uc0dd \ub77c\uc774\uc5b8 \ube0c\ub9b4(Ryan Brill)\uc740 2023\ub144\uc5d0 \u201cA Bayesian Analysis of the Time Through the Order Penalty in Baseball\u201d\ub77c\ub294 \ub17c\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774 \uac00\uc124\uc744 \uac80\uc99d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/a> \uc774 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 2012\ub144\ubd80\ud130 2019\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 MLB \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec, \ud0c0\uc790\uc640 \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \ud004\ub9ac\ud2f0, \ud648 \uacbd\uae30 \uc5ec\ubd80 \ub4f1 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ubcc0\uc218\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc5ec \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \uae30\ub300 wOBA\ub294 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud2b9\uc815 \uc21c\ubc88\uc5d0\uc11c \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \uc131\uc801\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uacbd\uae30\uac00 \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud37c\ud3ec\uba3c\uc2a4\uac00 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\ub97c \ubc18\ubcf5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\ub300\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc131\uc801\uc774 \ud5a5\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 TTOP \uac00\uc124\uacfc\ub294 \ub2e4\ub978 \uacb0\uacfc\uc774\ub2e4. \ub300\uc2e0, \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \uc131\uc801 \uc800\ud558\ub294 \ud53c\ub85c \ub204\uc801\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc694\uc778\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uacb0\ub860<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 TTOP \uac00\uc124\uc744 \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\ub97c \ubc18\ubcf5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\ub300\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc131\uc801\uc774 \ud5a5\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\uc124\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294, \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \uc131\uc801 \uc800\ud558\ub294 \ud53c\ub85c \ub204\uc801\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc694\uc778\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c, \ub9e4\ub2c8\uc800\ub4e4\uc740 \ud22c\uc218\ub97c \uad50\uccb4\ud560 \ub54c \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc21c\ubc88\uc744 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uace0, \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \ud53c\ub85c\ub3c4\uc640 \ud604\uc7ac \uc131\uc801\uc744 \uc885\ud569\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 \uc57c\uad6c \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud1b5\ucc30\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uba70, \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uacbd\uae30 \uc6b4\uc601\uc5d0 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. TTOP\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ud574\uac00 \uae4a\uc5b4\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d, \ud300\uc740 \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc624\ub7ab\ub3d9\uc548 \uc57c\uad6c\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud22c\uc218\uac00 \uac19\uc740 \ud0c0\uc790\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubc88 \uc0c1\ub300\ud560\uc218\ub85d \uc131\uc801\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uc5b4\uc654\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \u201c\ud0c0\uc21c\uc774 \ub3cc\uba74 \uc0dd\uae30\ub294 \ud398\ub110\ud2f0(Time Through the Order Penalty, TTOP)\u201d\ub77c\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. TTOP\ub294 \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubc88 \uc0c1\ub300\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \uc131\uc801\uc774 \uc810\uc810 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ud0c0\uc21c\uc774 \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8\ub85c \ub3cc \ub54c \uc0c1\ub300 \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud0c0\uc790\uac00 \ud22c\uc218\uc758 \ud22c\uad6c \ud328\ud134\uc744 \ud559\uc2b5\ud574 \ub354 \uc88b\uc740 &#8230; <a title=\"\ud0c0\uc21c\uc774 \ub3cc\uba74 \uc815\ub9d0 \ud22c\uc218\uc5d0\uac8c \ubd88\ub9ac\ud560\uae4c?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/suxism.com\/?p=7161\" aria-label=\"\ud0c0\uc21c\uc774 \ub3cc\uba74 \uc815\ub9d0 \ud22c\uc218\uc5d0\uac8c \ubd88\ub9ac\ud560\uae4c?\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub354 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uc138\uc694\">\ub354 \uc77d\uae30<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[281],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-batting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7161\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/suxism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}